Season Probability Calculator
Now that the Frogs are entering another Big 12 season, I am resurrecting this calculator. It allows you to quantify your subjective judgements about how the Frogs will do this season. Note that it generates full multinomial probabilities using your own browser. As the loops get 5 levels deep considering 495 combinations in the 4 loss case, I am not sure how well phone-level devices will handle this code. Computers will do fine.
Instructions: Input your personal probability estimates that TCU will win each game (must be 0 <= value <= 1):
As one example, using the default values from the ESPN football models:
Season prediction...(Using as default probabilities the ESPN football game model output) Probability of 12-0 = 0.167 Probability of undefeated in B12 = 0.167 Probability of exactly 1 loss = 0.424 Probability of exactly 2 losses = 0.333 Probability of exactly 3 losses = 0.076 Probability of exactly 4 losses = 0 Probability of 1 or more losses = 0.833 Probability of 2 or more losses = 0.409 Probability of 3 or more losses = 0.076 Probability of 4 or more losses = 0 Probability of 5 or more losses = 0 As you can see, we need games to be MUCH better than a toss through the conference season!!!
Input your estimate of the probability that TCU will win each game during the season. The calculator takes those estimates and computes the pure multinomial probabilities from them. Note: Once a game is played, the field is readonly 1.0 or 0.