Season Probability Calculator
This shows just how very difficult it is to go undefeated and just how good--and just plain lucky too--teams are that manage it.
Input your personal probability estimates that TCU will win each unplayed game (must be 0 <= value <= 1):
As one example, using the default values (which I suspect are not terribly far off--though definitely well purple-tinged) below for the remaining games of .584, .75, .95 leads to the following estimates:
Odds after Week 9... Probability of 12-0 = 0.4161 Probability of undefeated in MWC = 0.4161 Probability of exactly 1 loss = 0.457 Probability of exactly 2 losses = 0.1217 Probability of exactly 3 losses = 0.0052 Probability of 1 or more losses = 0.5839 Probability of 2 or more losses = 0.1269 Probability of 3 or more losses = 0.0052 Probability of 4 or more losses = 0
Input your estimate of the probability that TCU will win each game during the season. The calculator takes those estimates and computes the pure multinomial probabilities from them. Note: Once a game is played, the field is readonly 1.0 or 0.
Notes:
1. As the season progresses, I will put in 1's for each Frog win :-) and 0's for a Frog loss :-( as they occur. This allows you to update your predictions after each game!
2. You can use this calculator for any team over a 12 game season, the names of the Frog's opponents are irrelevant to the numbers generated. For the printout to make best sense, input the "key" non-conference game of the season in the OS field and 8 conference games in the same positions as the MWC games (if possible).
3. Anyone wishing to explore a 13 game season with a bowl game can copy the code in "View Source", change all 12's in for loops to 13's, add a 13th textbox in form1, change the display msg to reflect 13 games, and run the resulting file in their own website or browser. Far easier would be to just generate the 12 game probabilities and multiply them by your 13th game probability estimate.